Right now, there is plenty of evidence that the party is divided. But after all, it is the primaries. There are a few candidates to choose from. While Mitt Romney has the slight advantage, not every Republican is keen on him and some would like to see some other candidate at the reins. However, this, in and of itself, is quite normal. In fact, that is the main reason why there is a primary, so people can vote for their favorite candidates.

Just take a look at the Democratic Primaries four years ago between Hillary Clinton and President Obama. Did the Democratic party divide because Hillary Clinton didn’t become President? Obviously, the answer is No.

Then there is the evidence of the Tea Party that wasn’t really present in the last Presidential election. Some say that they are an offshoot of the Republican party. However, others will tell you that they are more of an independent party with their own ideas on how government should be run. It just depends on who you talk to.

One thing is clear, they have had their share of influence in elections and the primary. But at this point, the Tea Party has the same goal as the Republican party. That is, to vote President Obama out of office. This means that they might not like the Republican candidate but they will still vote for the winner of the Republican primary, because he has the best chance of getting President Obama out of office.

Another prevailing piece of evidence is the lack of the overwhelming majority for Mitt Romney. In other words, there is the Mitt Romney crowd and those who want anyone but Mitt Romney as the candidate. It will likely lead to some very close races within the next few months. Especially from all of those Ron Paul fans who feel he is the only candidate who should get the nomination. If there is one thing you can say about Ron Paul fans, they are loyal.

In fact, this piece of evidence is never more obvious than when you look at the polls. Those political polls can drive you crazy as on nearly a daily basis the person who is “not Mitt Romney” changes. One day it is Newt Gingrich and now, right after Iowa, it is Rick Santorum. The next primary it might be someone different. It is these wildly swinging changes that have everyone up in arms.

But even the “not Mitt Romney” crowd has a goal in common with the Mitt Romney crowd: getting President Obama out of office. There may be a few upturned noses at the voting booths this year when votes are cast.

Getting President Obama out of office is the number one reason why the Republican Party will not be divided when the final votes for President are cast.  After all, such division is perfectly normal during the time of primaries. The Republican Party is not divided. merely distracted by the primaries. Soon, they will come together for a very common goal.

Between the negative attack ads, the annoying “you should vote for my guy” phone calls, and the endless news coverage, it can get overwhelming. Sometimes, the most important things, their stance on the issues, get lost in all of the noise.

So this year, it is Mitt Romney versus Newt Gingrich. But let’s not forget the ever present Ron Paul who still has some very strong supporters. While there are others such as Michele Bachmann, they really are only strong in their respective states.

At this point, you really can’t tell who is really in the lead. The polls are all varying on who is going to get the most votes. However, it appears that Mitt Romney does have a significant advantage to win the Republican primary. Yet, he might not win the first battle.

The winner of the first primary of the New Year will have to overcome the weather. Yes, you read that right. The weather can change who wins. The main reason is that no one really wants to go out when there is a bunch of snow and ice on the road and a storm coming in. Thus, the people who vote are the ones who will brave such conditions to do so. This means that an unexpected win can come out of left field.

But winning the first primary is only one battle of many coming up. It is in the battles ahead where Romney actually has some significant advantage over the others. Newt Gingrich has failed to register in some of the states. A big one that he missed was the filing deadline in Florida.

Florida is a key state to win for both sides. It has a huge number of electoral votes. If the Republicans can gain Florida this election cycle, then they have a real shot at the Presidency. But without  Florida and a few other states, it is quite unlikely that Gingrich can come out as the Republican candidate. He would almost have to win every other state he is registered in by a decided margin.

Ron Paul will also have some influence in the outcome. In his case, it is more likely he would cause what is called a split vote. A split vote means that neither prominent candidate will have a decided advantage in the race. Instead, Ron Paul will draw away votes from the other candidates for himself. This doesn’t mean that he will win, but it will make some of the races very close.

While Republicans might not be that eager to embrace Mitt Romney as their candidate, it does appear that he has the campaign machine in place to pull out a win. Of course, this is no guarantee that he will win.

Another cycle of Primaries is about to begin and with it endless ads, annoying candidate phone calls, and non-stop news coverage. So, enjoy New Year’s while you can because things are about to get ugly.

I must admit, I’m not surprised at the results of this “poll”—released by Fairleigh Dickinson University (who?).  Disappointed, but not surprised.  After all, competition brings out both the best and the worst in people—and often encourages smears of this kind.

Okay, here are just a few of the problems in the story:

The sampling is too limited. The poll surveyed 612 New Jersey natives—and that’s it.  The article smugly asserts the all-too-local results somehow prove that, across the country, Fox News viewers are less informed than, say…readers of The New York Times.  (You know, the paper with Paul “There’s-no-proof-that-Gabby-Giffords’-shooter-was-a-Teabagger-but-the-odds-are-that-he-was” Krugman as the premier liberal voice…and David “I-love-the-crease-in-Obama’s-pants” Brooks as the premier “conservative” voice.  But I digress….)

You want to poll viewers across the country?  Poll viewers across the country.  For all we know, those “results” are just a local phenomenon.  And—His Supreme Awesomeness Chris Christie notwithstanding…NJ, last I checked, is traditionally a blue state.

The sampling demographics are not provided—not in the article, anyway.  Exactly how many Fox viewers did this no-name university poll?  How many MSNBC?  How many New York Times readers?  How many—and I got such a kick out of this part of the poll—how many Jon Stewart viewers?

All we know is that the pollsters have assured us that they accounted for partisanship.  Somehow, that doesn’t reassure me.  Anyhow…for all we know, the poll oversampled FOX viewers, so as to register enough “dumb” viewers to cancel out the smart ones.  Since the article conveniently leaves out the details…we may never know.

What were the questions?  Well, let’s see: “Fox viewers were 18 points less likely [than non-news-watchers] to know that Egyptians toppled their government and 6 points less likely to be aware that Syrians have not yet overthrown theirs.”

Okay…as someone who has his apartment room’s TV nearly always tuned into Fox, I happen to know that Fox leaves no room whatsoever for confusion regarding Syria.  Story after story lately has concerned the Syrian government struggling with the rebellion—and the UN’s condemnation of its “crimes against humanity.”  So…I guess we can assume that these “dumb” Fox viewers conveniently tuned out those stories.  (Translation: the poll failed to distinguish how often said viewers actually watch the channel.)

As for “Egyptians toppling their government”…ah, which government are we talking about?  As my colleague Ronald Rowe  noted last week…Egypt’s got a new government, and a new PM.  Last time I checked, the people haven’t toppled that one…yet.  For all we know, the viewers were confused by the question, to that effect: “Oh, they did it again?  Wow, I didn’t know that!”

Next—apparently, MSNBC fans know better than Fox viewers that Mitt Romney is the front runner.  Wait a minute.  This article came out last week.  Last time I checked, Newt Gingrich was topping the polls.  Before him, it was Herman Cain.  Maybe Mitt was briefly the front-runner amid the transition, but still…it’s a toss-up between him and Newt.  (I wonder how many respondents said, “Newt”?)

In other words…it’s the pollsters that have a problem here, not the viewers.

The only other example of “idiocy” provided by the article concerns party identification of the Occupiers.  The victims are MSNBC viewers.  But you know…they’re not that dumb.

You get the idea.  Other than that, we don’t know what the questions were—let alone, how they were worded.  And considering the known slant of the majority of university professors (and again—this is a no-name university in a traditionally blue state)…I’m not getting my hopes up on “fair and balanced”.

So there we have it: this article, more than anything else, indicates the pure jealousy—and desperation—of a “mainstream media” who can’t handle the competition.  And the constant invoking of “polls” like this—along with an unfortunate incident of the late lamented Steve Jobs, a registered Democrat, misrepresenting Fox—indicates that said desperation extends to their fans, as well.

But, hey—what do I know?  I’m a Fox viewer.

Now, Romney is by no means a guaranteed victor when it comes to the Republican primaries. Especially not with Herman Cain hot on his tail. But when Rick Perry tried to take on Romney, Romney came out as the clear winner.

Then Perry did something that many people saw as baffling. He stepped out of the debate limelight. Sure, there are still lots of debates coming up and most of them are unimportant, but that’s still publicity coverage on places other than Fox News. Publicity is something Perry desperately needs if he is going to get any kind of jump between now and the primaries.

Perry’s downfall has been mainly to Herman Cain’s advantage. Herman Cain has done mostly well in the debates or at least ducked most of the criticism. Sure, he has had a few missteps, but that is to be expected from a guy who isn’t a career politician. But none of his missteps or misstatements have really hurt him that much politically.

The fact that Herman Cain isn’t a career politician is helping him a great deal. In fact, if the economy and Congress don’t improve drastically, he will likely get even more support. Add in the fact that he isn’t Romney, and he becomes a very strong contender. Plus, he has brought some new ideas to the table even if the chance of passing such legislation is zero.

Just look at his tax plan. It certainly has drawn a lot of attention. Regardless of what side you are on, you have to give him credit for putting it out there. The fact is that people are talking about it and that is giving him a huge boost. Six months ago, no one really even knew who Herman Cain was. Now, he is a national figure who is giving the Republicans a real race.

It will be interesting to see how well he continues to hold up against mounting criticism. But so far, he has done pretty well as far as the public is concerned in explaining himself. The fact that he is doing all of this without a teleprompter is just that much more impressive.

However, there is still a lot of time left before the primaries. While Rick Perry’s star is unlikely to rise much more, Herman Cain’s star can fall if he isn’t careful. Sometimes, all it takes one mistake and the cards come crashing down.

WINNERS:
Barack Obama –
The President had nothing directly to do with the death of Muammar Gaddafi, but it happened under his watch. That’s two major enemies of the United States of America killed in a short period of time, which is all good for the sitting president. He looks stronger on foreign policy and I’m pretty sure the Nobel people can’t take their peace prize back, so it’s wins all around for Obama this week.

Libya –
There aren’t a dozen human beings on this planet from whose death I would take satisfaction, but World-class nutjob Muammar Gaddafi was one of them. Things are looking up for the 6.6 Million citizens of Libya.

Mitt Romney –
Rick Perry came out of the last debate looking like a petulant child. Rick Santorum’s a non-factor. Michele Bachmann’s campaign is in shambles. Newt Gingrich is unelectable. Ron Paul comes across as a fringe nut. Front runner Herman Cain is being assailed from all sides on his 9-9-9 economic plan. Mitt Romney… just is. Once again, Romney proves that slow and steady wins the race.

LOSERS:
Joe Biden –
Last week I praised Vice President Joe Biden (pictured) for upping his game and coming off as likable and charming in his recent uptick of visibility. Then he had to go and ruin it all. In the course of just a few days he suggested that opposition to the President’s Jobs Bill was tantamount to inviting rape, lashed out angrily at reporters, and pined for Republicans to experience rape for themselves. His exact words: “I wish they had some notion of what it was like to be on the other side of a gun, or a 200-pound man standing over you, telling you to submit.” Still not sure what that has to do with the Jobs Bill…

Americans –
We’re not happy. There’s a seldom-discussed measure of general happiness known as the Misery Index. The higher the number, the less happy we are as a nation. Unlike most national indices, this one is really straightforward. Add the inflation rate and unemployment rate together and call it the Misery Index. That number stands today at 13.0, the highest rate since 1983 when Ronald Reagan’s Morning in America was just getting underway. Back then, the economy improved drastically the following year. We can only hope for similar results this time around.

Rick Perry –
A few short months ago Rick Perry was the savior of the Right, the conservative Super Candidate who swooped in to save the Republican Party from a lackluster field of contenders. Now he’s just coming across as an angry George Bush clone with neither the ideas nor the demeanor of a serious candidate. Short on both style and substance, Perry’s once-promising campaign is propped up only by the massive sums of money he has successfully raised.

The Tea Party –
If Occupy Wall Street has accomplished nothing else, it has managed to get itself lumped into the same category with the Tea Party. This is bad news for the Tea Party, which was an actual grass-roots movement with an articulated agenda.

Michele Bachmann –
Michele Bachmann’s campaign has been circling the drain for months. Now her entire New Hampshire campaign staff (all five of them) quit en masse earning her a record third appearance in the Camp Campaign Losers column. They swear it has nothing to do with Bachmann or her chances, just like her top pollster before them and her campaign manager before that. Even if we take them at their collective word, it still isn’t good for the soon-to-be-former GOP candidate.

Congress –
69% of Americans polled by CNN last week said that Congress has “done nothing to address the country’s problems”. Only 28% of respondents gave Congress credit for doing anything at all positive in the last year. Those are bad numbers, even for the perennially unpopular legislature. Although more people blamed the Republicans than the Democrats, it portends badly for incumbents of either party in the next election cycle.

(U.S. Army photo)

You might remember Congressman Paul from the 2008 presidential race. The dark horse candidate shocked both conservatives and liberals alike with his massive grassroots support that saw him raise the kinds of funds from the general public that the other candidates were raking in from the corporations. Paul ran on a platform of restoring liberty and true fiscal conservatism. Some of Ron Paul’s more notable topics were the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the Federal Reserve and the decline of the economy. The congressman’s aim was to restore the United States of America as a country where people could be truly free from unjust laws and wasted tax dollars.

Unfortunately for Ron Paul, these ideas didn’t mesh with the status quo built up by the banks, corporations, the military-industrial-complex and law enforcement. He received strong opposition for his ideas, mostly from the media (both “mainstream” and FOX) who labeled him a nutjob. He received very little air time on the major news networks, yet somehow continuously garnered more and more support. He is considered by many the only Republican candidate who has a chance of beating President Obama in 2012. This is the man who originated the tea party movement, which was originally about restoring individual liberty and limiting the power of government before it was hijacked by Palin and her ilk as a racist and ignorant hate machine bent on taking down Muslim Obama and his socialist-fascist-communist regime.

So through every step, Paul has been cut off at the knees by his own party and the major media, yet still maintains his cadence. Like Charlie Sheen would say, that’s winning.

I’ll leave you with this final paragraph, which is a comment by user FreedomsReigning from the YouTube video clip I linked to. I think it sums this situation up nicely:

“Please consider Libertarianism. There’s a VERY good reason that both parties, and our government, consider us to be their enemy. We’re fiscally conservative and socially liberal because we understand that when you try and separate one from the other, you’ll get neither. We’re the choice you aren’t supposed to have.”

(Ron Paul official photo: U.S. House of Representatives)

It is, of course, a ridiculous question. Could a massive natural disaster strike the US? It’s possible. Could a natural occurrence of epic proportions conceivably damage a US nuclear reactor thereby causing a radiation leak of one degree or another? I’m sure it could. Do we have any reactors in areas prone to massive earthquakes or giant tidal waves or prehistoric monsters who’ve been tucked away in suspended animation for thousands of years but are now awakened to go on a rampage? Nope.

Rahm Emanuel may have left the White House to go run the most politically corrupt city in the nation (the world?), but his “Never let a crisis go to waste” mentality surely lingers on. Just as the Gulf oil spill was viewed as an opportunity to further vilify and clamp down even harder on the oil industry, you can safely bet that the Obama administration will be looking for ways to use the situation in Japan for political gain.

And the administration could use a little political gain right now. The latest Rasmussen poll gives the President a -20 approval index, tying his lowest number for the year. That means that the number of people reporting that they “strongly disapprove” of the President’s performance is 20% higher than the number who strongly approve. The 56% overall who disapprove of Mr. Obama’s performance is just two points off his worst result ever and his highest disapproval rating this year.

I’m told that the Japanese language, much like Rahm Emanuel, uses the same word for “crisis” and “opportunity”. Fitting then, that the political FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) machine will soon be cranked up in order to make an opportunity out of Japan’s national crisis. Using the willing media to shift We-the-People’s attention to the evil tyrants running Big Nuclear Energy will distract from the administration’s inability to deal with real-life evil tyrants like Moammar Khadafi.

He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Questioned, in a variety of interviews and through the White House Spokesman, has given an array of interpretations of the mid-term election results. Any one of which is insulting. Taken together, they represent the latest example of his unbelievable hubris. In no particular order:

You, the People are too impatient. The campaign slogan was “‘change you can believe in’, not ‘change you can believe in in eighteen months’” he chided us.

It’s all George Bush’s fault. Believe it or not, the Wise and Benevolent Leader is still blaming his predecessor for all the nation’s ills. The explanation goes that Bush and the Republicans left us in such utter disarray that even Obama’s mightiest efforts have yet to realize results.

You, the People just don’t understand. This one is the closest the Exalted One ever comes to accepting any sort of responsibility for his unpopularity in almost every demographic. He didn’t do a good enough job explaining that his plan is what’s best for us. We, the People simply don’t get his brilliance.

It’s the Republicans. He would have achieved everything he set out to do and then moved on to bring about world peace, cure cancer, and colonize Mars if it hadn’t been for the Republican opposition. Ignore the fact that the Democrats held strong majorities in both Houses of Congress for the last two years. The Republicans still blocked Obama’s every effort by wielding some unholy bureaucratic power of obstruction.

If there is going to be a second term of the Obama Administration, he’s going to have to tone down his arrogance and start listening to We, the People. If he doesn’t, we will send him a message in November 2012 that he will not be able to ignore.

This is one of the professional pollsters’ favorite questions in all the world. In good times and bad, regardless of the party in power, there is always a poll or three available to tell us that the country is heading down the tubes.

Under President Bush, the percentage of people who thought we were moving in the right direction was around 40%. Two years into the Obama administration, we’re still sitting right at 40%. One has to wonder what the respondents to this question think is meant by “moving in the right direction”.

Under President Bush, we moved more and more toward a free market. Government intervention and oversight was stripped to the minimum in many sectors. Since President Obama took, we have moved in the exact opposite direction, with ever tighter government regulation and involvement. So how can 60% of Americans object to both? Mathematically, there has to be at least a 20% crossover . If the polls are to be believed, one-fifth of American think that moving either to the Right or the Left is the wrong way to go.

The only way this number makes sense is if “moving in the right direction” means something else altogether to the respondents. How are we moving? Where are we moving? What would be the right direction? Without the answers to these clarifying questions, we can never make logical sense of the poll data.

However, it is a lot easier for politicians to use the numbers to sling mud at the opposing party than it is to dig in and fix the problem. Best guess – direction means money in my pocket. When the economy picks up (someday… eventually) whoever is in power at the time will reap the political benefit of moving the country in the right direction. It worked for President Clinton. It will work again. We, the People, are just that predictable.

The context is important. The way the question is presented can have a heavy influence on the answer. Consider the following question: “Is a potato a vegetable?” The correct answer is obviously, “yes”. But what if I were to spend a minute discussing my diet and watching my carbs and trying to make good food choices before asking the question? Most people would suddenly deny that a potato is a vegetable, instead putting it into the ‘carbohydrate’ category.
The subtext may not change the answer, but it can certainly influence the interpretation.

I wonder how many of those Americans think that he’s just an out and out Muslim (which is just wrong) as opposed to thinking that he’s a closet Muslim bent on destroying America’s Christian values (which is an unproven conspiracy theory). The woefully uninformed and the dangerously suspicious give exactly the same answer, but with a very different meaning.

I saw another local poll in which 18% of respondents said that they were not influenced by negative campaign ads. There are three possible reasons that someone might put themselves into the ‘not influenced’ group: You think you’re above being influenced, you don’t pay attention, or you just don’t care. That nearly one in five of my neighbors falls into one of these three categories is a frightening prospect.

Lastly, a recent USA Today poll reported that 42% of Americans consider the television to be “a necessity of life”. I’m sure right now there’s a meeting going on in the White House basement concerning the government’s responsibility to provide a TV for every illegal immigrant in the US. It’s in the room right next to Obama’s secret underground Mosque.