The 2010 Primaries are under way in some states and rapidly approaching in many others. There has been a lot of talk about the mid-term elections and what they mean for President Obama’s administration. But the mid-terms are still a few months off. First, each party has to select their candidates for that election. What can we learn from this mid-term primary season, half way through the first term of the Obama Administration?
• The anti-incumbency movement isn’t as mighty as once thought. There’s a huge theoretical groundswell against incumbents. There’s no doubt about it. Millions of hard working Americans are subscribing to the “Throw the Bums Out” approach and aching for a clean start… except in their home district, which is the only place where their vote actually counts. Voters want the incumbents out in theory, but in practice they’ll take the devil they know over the devil they don’t.
• There’s a battle going on for the soul of the Republican Party. It’s really not Centrist vs. Conservative. For the most part the true Centrists, like Governor Charlie Crist in Florida, have either tergiversated or been forcibly ejected from the party. It’s Conservative vs. Conservativer in the Republican Party right now, with candidates struggling to capture the elusive Tea Party vote to secure the nomination.
• It’s the same old same old in the Democratic Party. The party that holds the White House and both chambers of Congress. The anti-Bush message has carried the party to tremendous success. When you’re winning, you keep doing what you’ve been doing. So there has been little movement within the party. And there probably won’t be until they start losing… which will probably be this November.
Every locality has their own races worth watching this August, but whether or not any trends emerge that will carry over to November and beyond remains to be seen.
